Jet Fuel Supply Fears Grow as Iran War Drags On, Airlines Are Already Cutting Flights (What Travelers Need to Know)

If you‘ve noticed your flight search results looking a little… sparse lately, or more expensive than you remember, you’re not imagining things.

Here‘s the short version: The war in Iran is squeezing jet fuel supplies. Airlines are responding by canceling flights, adding fuel surcharges, and quietly trimming schedules. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled in weeks. And nobody really knows when it’s going to get better.

The longer version? That‘s worth understanding, especially if you have travel plans this summer. Let’s walk through what‘s happening, and what you can actually do about it.

The Strait of Hormuz: Why a Narrow Waterway Matters to Your Flight

Before we talk about flight cancellations, we need to talk about geography. Specifically, a 21-mile-wide stretch of water called the Strait of Hormuz.

Why this matters: Roughly 21% of the world‘s seaborne jet fuel supply passes through this strait.

Think of the Strait like the main highway connecting the Middle East’s oil fields to the rest of the world. When that highway gets blocked, or even threatened, the whole system backs up. Tankers sit idle. Refineries run short. And jet fuel, which requires specialized storage and doesn‘t get stockpiled the way gasoline does, gets scarce fast.

Iran has effectively restricted movement through the strait since the conflict escalated in late February. The result? Oil prices shot past $100 a barrel, and jet fuel followed right behind.

What makes this different from past oil shocks: Usually, prices go up but the physical fuel is still available. This time, the supply itself is constrained. Countries that don’t produce their own jet fuel, which is most of them, are scrambling.

That‘s the difference between paying more at the pump and not being able to fill up at all.

Jet Fuel Prices Have Nearly Doubled, Here’s What That Looks Like

The numbers are stark. In late February, before the war began in earnest, jet fuel was trading around $85–$90 per barrel. By late March, it had reached $195.19 per barrel, a near-100% increase.

In the U.S. market specifically, jet fuel surged from $2.50 per gallon on February 27 to $4.88 by April 2 — a 95% jump.

Who‘s Feeling the Squeeze First?

Asia is getting hit hardest right now. Countries like Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan, which rely heavily on imported fuel, are already seeing rationing and flight cuts. China and Thailand have halted jet fuel exports. South Korea has capped them at last year’s levels.

Europe is next in line. Ryanair‘s CEO Michael O’Leary warned that fuel suppliers can guarantee supply “to mid-end May.” After that? “If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June, then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”

The United States is somewhat insulated — it produces plenty of its own jet fuel. But “insulated” doesn‘t mean immune. Global prices still affect everyone.

United’s $11 Billion Warning

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, put the situation in stark perspective: “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United‘s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”

Translation: Airlines cannot simply absorb costs that exceed their best-ever profits. The money has to come from somewhere, fewer flights, higher fares, or both.

Airlines Are Cutting Flights, Here’s Who’s Canceling What

Middle Eastern Carriers: The Epicenter

The region that normally handles nearly 10% of global passenger traffic has been paralyzed. At least eight countries closed their airspace in the initial days of the conflict.

• Qatar Airways canceled nearly 92% of its flights since February 28.
• Etihad cut almost three-quarters.
• Emirates canceled nearly half.

These aren‘t just local carriers. They’re the backbone of East-West connectivity, carrying millions of connecting passengers between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

European Airlines: Suspensions Through October

European carriers have extended cancellations far beyond what many expected:

• Lufthansa Group suspended flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv until May 31, with service to Abu Dhabi, Amman, Beirut, Riyadh, and Tehran paused until October 24.
• British Airways canceled Abu Dhabi routes until near year-end.
• Scandinavian Airlines cut approximately 1,000 flights due to fuel costs.

Asian Carriers: Creative Problem-Solving

Asian airlines are employing workarounds that reveal just how tight supplies have become:

• AirAsia X is loading extra fuel in Malaysia before flying to Vietnam because Vietnamese airports are limiting how much fuel they‘ll provide.
• Air India added refueling stops in Kolkata on routes returning from Yangon due to shortages in Myanmar.
• Vietnam Airlines cut 23 domestic flights per week to conserve fuel.

Airlines in Myanmar suspended domestic flights entirely for part of March because they simply couldn’t get fuel.

U.S. Airlines: Trimming the Schedule

American carriers are reducing capacity more strategically than dramatically:

• United Airlines is cutting approximately 5% of planned routes across Q2 and Q3 2026, focusing on “off-peak periods” like midweek and red-eye flights.
• United is also preparing for oil to potentially hit $175 per barrel and stay above $100 through the end of 2027.

On one recent Monday, nearly 7% of all global flights were canceled — 7,049 out of 104,618 scheduled routes, compared to 4.7% on the same day last year.

What This Means for Your Wallet (And Your Summer Travel Plans)

Fuel Surcharges Are Back, And They‘re Not Small

Remember fuel surcharges? They were a thing in the 2000s, faded away for a while, and now they’re back with a vengeance:

• Air India added international fuel surcharges ranging from $24 to $280 per sector depending on destination.
• Air France-KLM is increasing long-haul ticket prices by €50 per round trip.
• Porter Airlines (Canada) added a $40 temporary fuel surcharge per flight.
• WestJet introduced a $60 fee on companion voucher bookings.
• Cathay Pacific hiked its fuel surcharge by 34% across routes.

And this is likely just the beginning. Ticket prices in early March were already up 24% compared to the same week in 2025.

Ryanair‘s CEO Says: Book Now

Michael O’Leary, never one to mince words, offered unusually direct advice: He “strongly advises” anyone planning summer 2026 travel to book as soon as possible before fares climb higher.

Whether you take travel advice from a budget airline CEO is up to you, but the underlying logic is sound: prices are trending in one direction, and it‘s not down.

How Long Will This Last? (The Uncomfortable Answer)

Nobody knows. The war is in its sixth week, and analysts see escalation as the most likely near-term scenario. Ceasefire negotiations have reportedly hit a “dead end.”

United‘s CEO is planning for oil to remain above $100 through the end of 2027.

That doesn’t mean jet fuel will stay at $195 forever. But it does suggest that “normal” might be a long way off.

What Travelers Can Do Right Now

1. Check Your Flight Status, More Often Than Usual

Airlines are adjusting schedules frequently, sometimes with little notice. If you have an existing booking, check it weekly. If you‘re planning to book, confirm the flight is still operating before you pay.

2. Know Your Rights

Under EC 261 (the European passenger rights regulation), compensation is usually not required when cancellations stem from “extraordinary circumstances”, which armed conflict definitely qualifies as. However, airlines must still offer rebooking or a full refund.

Bottom line: You won’t get extra compensation, but you shouldn‘t lose your money.

3. Book With Flexibility

Look for fares that include free changes or cancellation options. Paying a little more for flexibility might save you much more later if your plans need to shift.

4. Consider Travel Insurance, Carefully

Not all policies cover cancellations related to war or geopolitical events. Read the fine print. Look for “cancel for any reason” coverage if peace of mind is worth the premium.

5. Be Strategic About Timing

Midweek flights, red-eye departures, and off-peak travel windows are where airlines are cutting capacity first. If you can travel on weekends or during higher-demand periods, your flight is statistically less likely to be among the cuts.

6. Monitor Alternative Routes

If you‘re flying between Europe and Asia or Africa, the traditional Middle East connections may not be reliable. Consider routing through other hubs, Istanbul, Cairo, or even longer paths through North Africa or Central Asia, though these will likely add hours to your journey.

The Bigger Picture: Will This Redraw the Aviation Map?

Here’s the question that industry insiders are quietly asking: Is this a temporary shock, or something that reshapes global aviation permanently?

The Middle East has spent decades building itself into the world‘s premier aviation crossroads. In 2025, an estimated 67 million passengers connected through the region. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable and airspace closures become a recurring risk, airlines may start rethinking whether that hub model still makes sense.

“The Middle East sits at the crossroads of global air traffic,” one aviation expert noted. “Any instability in this region immediately affects connectivity between Europe, Asia, and Africa.”

Airlines are already routing flights further north through Central Asia or south via North Africa, longer paths that burn more fuel at exactly the moment fuel is most expensive.

It’s a vicious cycle: longer routes require more fuel, which costs more, which forces more flight cuts, which pushes passengers onto fewer options, which drives prices higher still.

For now, the aviation industry is doing what it always does during crises: adapting in real time, cutting where necessary, and hoping the geopolitics resolve before the economics become unsustainable.